This is pretty much in line with the research we did in the West Midlands last year showing 42% looking to leave. https://bmcfampract.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12875-015-0363-1
Locally ED attendance numbers are lower than last year but the hospitals are really struggling due to the larger proportion of very sick patients who need the skills, expertise and technology of a hospital. On the other side a number of patients I have seen have been frightened to be admitted and this not good at every level when they really need to go in.
To answer the question, yes I have shared this paper (which is in the public domain anyway) widely including NHS England and the Secretary of State.
I am one of the authors of the paper. To answer the questions, we do not know how many will follow through with full retirement, but 80% say that they will reduce anyway. The sample size is 1200 GPs or about 1/3 in the West Mids with a representative age cohort. We have also been clear on the limitations of the research. At a time when we are just not filling GP training placements, the impact upon all will be enormous and will range across direct patient care in general practice, to impacts upon hospital colleagues (who are already struggling) and on patient care. The research deliberately asked responders what might keep them in the workforce and not surprisingly it relates to reducing workload volume and complexity and reducing administration. There are others as well. In my mind this is the "short term fix" pending what is hoped will be an upturn in GP recruitment. Whether this latter element will work we will only know in retrospect. We have shared this paper with a range of organisations locally and nationally as we did the research to highlight the concerns and to try and be helpful.
Agree with Azeem's comments totally. Don't shoot the messenger.