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The waiting game

Samar Razaq

  • Testing my patience

    Samar Razaq's comment 28 May 2020 5:43am

    must not forget the predictive value of the tests. Even if the tests are 99% sensitive and 99% specific (which I understand they are) they have to be interpreted in light of the prevalence of the condition in the community. According to the ONS website the approximate prevalence of Covid-19 2 weeks ago was stable at 0.27%. A quick calculation using these numbers gives a positive predictive value of a positive test at around 70% and a negative predictive value of 100%. So there is a 30% chance that a positive test is incorrect. One can obviously mitigate this uncertainty by repeating the test...more money for Roche I suppose

  • General Practice - 2049

    Samar Razaq's comment 20 Feb 2018 6:27am

    Agree with a lot of the comments. Non GP healthcare workers don't take any risks at all but perhaps they will be the robots of the future, working to protocols, not diverging even a little, and as a result increasing the burden on the NHS by even a greater amount.