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New cancer cases set to soar

The NHS faces a budget-busting 45% rise in the number of new cancer cases over the next 20 years, a projection study has concluded.


An analysis showed there could be 432,000 cases diagnosed in 2030 compared with 298,000 in 2007.

The biggest projected rise is in male cancers – with a 55% increase over the next two decades. An ageing population is mainly to blame for the expected increases with an additional 25,000 cases of prostate cancer annually by 2030.

Researchers from the Centre for Cancer Prevention at Queen Mary, University of London, said oral, liver, and kidney cancers would see some of the biggest increases.
And the rate of malignant melanoma would rise by 52% for both men and women.

But the study predicted breast cancer cases would decline by 7% due to a reduction in use of HRT.

Harpal Kumar, chief executive of Cancer Research UK, which funded the study, said: ‘At a time when the finances of the health service are being squeezed, it is absolutely crucial health commissioners plan now for a massive increase in demand for cancer services.'

British Journal of Cancer 2011 online 27 October

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