Targeted action needed for males and deprived areas to go ‘smoke free’
Targeted action will be needed for deprived areas and males not to fall behind as the country goes ‘smoke free’, researchers have cautioned.
The proportion of 12 to 30-year-olds in England who smoke could drop below 5% decades earlier than it would otherwise do, under government plans to progressively raises the age of tobacco sale, a modelling study has found.
But the impact may not be seen as quickly as suggested by official figures, say the researchers, who looked at a more conservative scenario based on trends seen in other countries.
Legislation designed to ensure a ‘smokefree generation’ is planned to start from next year.
Under the Government’s Tobacco and Vapes Bill, from 2027 the age of sale of cigarettes would rise year on year, so that anyone born in 2009 or later can never legally be sold tobacco.
Analysis by the University of Nottingham showed that smoking prevalence for 12-30-year-olds would likely dip below 5% in the 2040s, decades earlier than would be expected if the law was not brought in.
But it also showed that males and the most deprived communities are forecast to reach this milestone later unless support is effectively targeted.
Reporting their findings in the Tobacco Control journal, the team said health gains of the policy build over time.
By 2075, the law could deliver around 88,000 additional years of healthy life compared with no new law, they concluded.
The benefits to health were shown to be the most impactful in disadvantaged communities where smoking remains highest.
Around 30% of total healthy life years gained are likely to occur in the most deprived 20% of neighbourhoods, the researchers found.
For those groups where smoking rates may fall more slowly, tailored communication and greater targeted investment in enforcement may bring smoking prevalence below 5% sooner.
The UK government’s own modelling had assumed a 30% cumulative annual reduction in smoking initiation based on the decline seen when the age of sale increased from 16 to 18 in England.
The University of Nottingham group used a more conservative assumption of a 5% cumulative annual reduction, informed by evidence from international age of sale laws, they explained.
A separate study published in Nicotine and Tobacco Research has found that people experiencing more economic disadvantages are more likely to smoke cigarettes, have higher levels of tobacco addiction, and find it harder to quit.
Figures from the Smoking Toolkit Study, an ongoing survey in England, found the link was consistent when they looked at occupational social grade, housing type, educational level, and household income.
Nathan Davies, lead author of the research on the impact of new legislation based at the University of Nottingham, said: ‘This modelling suggests the smokefree generation law could help stop young people from ever starting to smoke, accelerating progress towards a tobacco-free future.
‘But how the policy is implemented will matter. Stronger enforcement, communication and stop smoking support in communities where smoking remains most common could help ensure the benefits are shared across the country and achieved more rapidly.’
Alizée Froguel, prevention policy manager at Cancer Research UK, said: ‘Smoking is the leading cause of cancer deaths in England.
‘This study highlights what a landmark step the age of sale legislation will be in helping protect future generations from a lifetime of deadly, costly addiction. Strong enforcement and effective implementation of this policy will also be critical to its success.’
She added that measures must sustainable funding for stop smoking services in the areas that need it most.
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